Two emails.
That’s the whole thing.
No podcast, no Discord, no course. A Sunday letter every week, a deep dive every other Thursday, and the occasional flash when something breaks that can’t wait. Everything ends in a number, and every number ends up on the Board.
The formats
The Sunday View
The week in prediction markets, argued properly. The lead call comes with the case against it and what would change our mind — written down before the outcome, where it can hurt us. Five minutes, and you’re ahead of everyone at work.
The Long View
One question taken seriously. Where the money sits, what’s priced, which side we’re on and at what number, the strongest case against us, and how the view is actually expressible across venues. The analyst desk, in public.
The Tape
Fires only when something breaks that can’t wait for Sunday. If The Tape lands on a Tuesday afternoon, that itself is the message. Deliberately rare — the scarcity is the signal.
Anatomy of a Sunday View
six slots, every weekThe call
One market, one side, one number. The three numbers — ours, the Floor’s, the market’s — freeze the moment the letter sends and land on the Board.
The other side of the trade
Every week we argue against ourselves, properly, and pre-register what would change our mind. If we fold later, you’ll know whether it was for the stated reason.
One chart
A single picture that earns its place. If the week doesn’t produce one worth your attention, the slot runs empty and says so.
The moves
What repriced and why it matters — five lines, not fifty. Reading time is part of the contract: five minutes, start to finish.
Readers vs the analyst
The Floor votes in one tap. The aggregate becomes the second column on the Board — a continuous, never-reset contest between the room and the desk.
The standings
The running record, printed in every issue whether it flatters us or not. When there’s a miss, the autopsy runs here too.
When The Tape fires
trigger conditions — nothing else qualifiesThe Tape is a flash, not a schedule. It exists so that when your phone buzzes off-cycle, you already know it’s real.
A market we cover moves 15+ points in 24 hours on real news
A call on the Board resolves early
A platform or regulator does something that changes the game
Recent issues
full archive →62%: The Fed isn’t done
The Sunday View · the 5%→27%→7% repricing, and the book opens.
70%: Does the volume stick?
The Long View · was June’s 5bn real, or was it the World Cup.
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