Every call.
Three numbers. Frozen.
Our line, the Floor’s vote, and the market’s price — locked at the moment of publish, graded when reality answers. Nothing on this page gets edited after the fact. That’s the whole product.
The standings — all time
A clean sheet is not a record. Someone on this page gets embarrassed by Christmas — the deal is that you get to watch.
Open calls
get the next one →A second hawkish dissent evaporating, or core CPI printing soft enough that the September meeting goes quiet. Written down before the outcome — that’s the point.
A single $2.5bn+ day in the back half of July, or a headline event that drags civilians in. June looked like a one-off; we’re paid to say so in advance.
The generic ballot swinging three points against, or the map changing under everyone’s feet. Midterms punish the president’s party — until the year they don’t.
The book
| # | Call | Ours | Floor | Market | Result | vs market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ex. | A resolved winner renders like this | 74% | 61% | 66¢ | HIT | +8 |
| ex. | A resolved loser renders like this — autopsy linked, forever | 58% | 44% | 51¢ | MISS → autopsy | −7 |
| 001 | Fed hikes in September? | 62% | — | 57¢ | OPEN | — |
| 002 | July volume under $30bn? | 70% | — | — | OPEN | — |
| 003 | Democrats take the House? | 68% | — | 65¢ | OPEN | — |
The chart nobody else will publish
The calibration curve
When we say 70%, it should happen about 70% of the time. Once twenty calls have resolved, every one of them lands on this chart — our stated confidence against reality’s answer, dot by dot.
On the diagonal means honest. Above it means we’re timid. Below it means we’re loud. Most people who talk about markets would rather die than show you this axis.
How a call gets graded
Frozen at publish
Our line, the Floor’s vote, the market price. Three numbers, timestamped in the letter, never touched again.
It resolves
Every call names its resolution date and source in advance — so grading can’t be argued after the fact.
vs market is scored
Beating a coin flip is meaningless. The score that counts is whether our line beat the price you could have taken.
Misses get autopsies
What we believed, what happened, what we update, what we don’t. Linked from this table, forever.
Your vote goes in the Floor column.
The Floor is the readers, aggregated — one vote each in the Sunday letter, frozen alongside ours. History judges all of us together. 973 people are already on the record.
Join the Floor