62% sure?
Prove it.
A weekly letter on prediction markets. We put a number on it before it happens, then get graded with everyone watching. The whole book stays public. That’s the bit nobody else does.
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The standings
the full book →The book opens this week. Someone on this page gets embarrassed by Christmas.
Open calls
all calls →Two emails. That’s the whole thing.
The Sunday View
The week’s calls, one chart, the standings, and whatever the market got hilariously wrong. Five minutes, then you’re ahead of everyone at work.
62% The Fed isn’t done→The Long View
One question taken seriously. Where the money sits, why we’re on the side we’re on, and what would make us wrong. Ends in a number, like everything here.
70% Does the volume stick?→From the library
browse all issues →62%: The Fed isn’t done
The 5%→27%→7% repricing in eleven sessions, why we think the market over-corrected on the way down — and the book opens with three calls on the record.
70%: Does the volume stick?
June printed $45bn across the exchanges. One question taken seriously: was that a regime change, or was it the World Cup?
Written on Sunday.
The shelf fills one honest issue at a time — no backfill, no deletes, misses shelved next to hits. The next one lands at 8am UK.
House rules
read them all →Three numbers, frozen
Every call ships with our line, the Floor’s vote, and the market price. Locked at publish. Edited never.
Everything gets graded
It resolves, it goes on the record. Misses get an autopsy, not a quiet delete. The misses are honestly the best reading.
Beat the price or be quiet
Anyone can beat a coin flip. The column that matters is whether the line beat the market. That’s the whole game.
There’s a room under this.
Dinners in Sydney, invite-only, starting soon. The Floor gets graded against the analyst every week, and when the book has enough history there are seasons — survive Last Trader Standing and the seat at the table is yours.